Professional Ag Marketing Inc. -

Ag Market Commentary

cmdtyNewswires - Tue Aug 04, 9:53PM UTC

Corn futures faced sharp selling pressure on Tuesday, as front months were down 7 to 9 cents. Several new crop months posted contract lows. Barchart’s cmdty Yield Forecast for August is 174.8 bpa. That is up 1 bpa from the July forecast, but below USDA’s 178.5. Other notable firms are forecasting 180 to 182.4 bpa. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed the crop progressing faster than normal for a majority of the US, with a few ECB and fringe states slightly below normal for the dough stage. The 7-day QPF shows precip hitting 1-1.5 inches in scattered parts of the Corn Belt, including good coverage in Iowa. The 8-14 day outlook shows higher chances for above normal temp and slightly above normal precip for the Eastern half of the US through mid-August.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.08 1/2, down 9 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.20 1/2, down 8 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.32 1/4, down 8 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Front month soybean futures fell 11 to 14 3/4 cents on Turnaround Tuesday. In the rest of the complex, August meal was down $3.60, as Sep posted a new contract low. Aug soy oil slipped 12 points on the day. On Monday, NASS indicated that the US soybean crop conditions improved 1% wk/wk to 73% gd/ex. That translates to 381 on the Brugler500 index, the second highest for week 31 on record. Barchart’s August cmdty Yield Forecast is 49.2 bpa for soybeans. That was up 0.4 bpa from the July estimate. StoneX released a 54.2 bpa projection on Monday, as USDA will give their first survey driven estimate next Wednesday. US and China trade reps reportedly plan to meet via video conference on August 15 to assess compliance by China on the Phase One deal.

AUG 19 Soybeans closed at $8.83 3/4, down 13 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.79 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents,

NOV 20 Soybeans closed at $8.81 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $8.87 3/4, down 14 cents,

AUG 19 Soybean Meal closed at $283.50, down $3.60,

AUG 19 Soybean Oil closed at $31.55, down $0.12

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures posted another round of losses on Tuesday, led by the winter wheat contracts. CBT wheat fell 10 to 13 1/4 cents in the front months on the day, with KC losing 6 to 8 1/2 cents. MPLS was down 2 to 4 3/4 cents. Several KC and MPLS contracts posted new lows. Weakness in corn pressured the market lower. Japan’s MOA issued their weekly wheat tender, seeking 130,295 MT, with 66,050 MT as U.S. specific. Egypt’s GASC issued a tender for an unspecified amount of wheat for September delivery. Results are expected tomorrow.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.08 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.01 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were down 22 to 75 cents on Tuesday. August options expire on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were also lower, down 27 to 52 cents on the day. The August 3 CME Feeder Cattle index was $140.50, 70 cents higher on the day. In KS some light trading took place at $99 and at $100. Tomorrow’s FCE online cattle auction has 1,474 head listed so far. There are 336 heifers from OK, but the remaining cattle are from TX and KS. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel spread narrowing by 47 cents to $13.79. Choice boxes were down by 42 cents, with Select boxes 5 cents higher. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter was back up on Tuesday at 119,000 head. That brought the WTD total to 232,000 head, down 4,000 wk/wk and 9,000 head from last year.

AUG 19 Cattle closed at $102.425, down $0.600,

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $107.525, down $0.750,

DEC 20 Cattle closed at $111.600, down $0.225,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $144.600, down $0.275

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.550, down $0.525

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.950, down $0.275

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted a 20 cent loss in August on Tuesday, with other front months 52 to 72 cents higher. The July 31 CME Lean Hog index was $53.11, down by 41 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price on Tuesday afternoon was not released due to packer submission issues. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.28 lower in the PM report to $65.50. The butt primal was higher on the day, with the rest of the primals lower. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 474,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That is down 1,000 head from last week and even with a year ago.

AUG 19 Hogs closed at $49.675, down $0.200,

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $49.125, up $0.725

DEC 20 Hogs closed at $50.600, up $0.525

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures saw 9 to 41 point gains in most contacts on Tuesday. The dollar was weaker on the day. The Seam posted sales of 21,976 bales on Monday, with an average prices of 57.25 cents/lb. NASS crop conditions worsened by 4 points on the Brugler500 index on Monday. In TX, conditions fell back 8 points on the Brugler500 to 301. The 7-day QPF shows very little precip over the next week for much of the South. The August 3 Cotlook A index was back down by 50 points to 69.55 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 47.71 cents/lb, and the LDP is 4.29 cents/lb.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 63.94, up 41 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 63.98, up 11 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 64.63, up 9 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.06, up 11 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by: <img src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/images1.aws.barchart.com/logos/bruglerlogo.gif" border="0" /> Brugler Marketing & Management LLC 1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022 Phone: 402-697-3623 Fax: 402-289-2353 E-mail: <a href="mailto:alanb@bruglermktg.com">alanb@bruglermktg.com</a> Web: <a href="http://bruglermarketing.com/">http://bruglermarketing.com</a>   <div class="MsoNormal" align="center"> Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com/BruglerSampler">here</a> to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today! <hr /> Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! <a href="http://www.bruglermarketing.com">Start here</a> </div> Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? <a href="http://www.agricharts.com/forms/ac_ag.php">Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.</a>

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